BLOODBATH?

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010 | Uncategorized

Will November’s mid-term elections be a repeat of 1994 for the Democrats?  Right now, a repeat of 1994 looks like the Democratic Party’s best-case scenario:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.

And that’s not all.  The Republicans have a huge lead in another area.

Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be “very” enthusiastic about voting, and now hold — by one point — the largest such advantage of the year.

Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup’s likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP’s favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November.

Let’s see.  A ten-point lead in the generic ballot, twice as large as it was in 1994 when the Republicans took control of both houses of the Congress.  And a 25-point lead in likely voter enthusiasm.   I may have to use some vacation time to live-blog that day.

11 Comments to BLOODBATH?

Bill2
August 31, 2010

Even Barbara Boxhead in CA may lose her job.

Katherine
August 31, 2010

We can hope, Bill2.

Allen Lewis
August 31, 2010

Let’s just hope the Rebpub’s don’t get overconfident and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!!

unreconstructed rebel
August 31, 2010

Amen to that!

The Pilgrim
August 31, 2010

“Even Barbara Boxhead in CA may lose her job.”

I would give ANYTHING to see Nanny Pelosi being shown the door! If the GOP were to gain but one seat in both chambers, I would want it to be hers.

skeptic5
August 31, 2010

More important than any Republican gains in November is that ALL Republicans begin AND CONTINUE to act like responsible adults when they get to Congress. They must never forget that each and every Democrats should be presumed to have the destruction of American greatness as his or her goal, until a particular individual has been absolutely proven to the contrary. Democrats will NOT keep political bargains in good faith, and so no bargain should be made unless not making it will inevitably damage the country.

Long term, the best thing a Republican Congress could do would be to propose a term limit amendment to the Constitution. The little incompetent who currently takes up space in the White House has no say in that process, and I suspect that such an amendment would be adopted in a heartbeat (as Constitutional Amendment adoptions go) by the required number of states. This should start to send people to Congress who knew that they had to go back and live under the laws they passed. Without the near-irresistible lure of lifetime employment, I think we’d see a different kind of legislative thinking in DC. That would be a priceless legacy that Republicans MIGHT have a chance of giving the country.

Katherine
August 31, 2010

The first thing I’m going to do following the election of a Republican House (and Senate, if it happens), is to write and say, “Don’t blow it this time!” The money giveaway pipeline must be shut down.

ccinnova
August 31, 2010

The first thing I’m going to do following the election of a Republican House (and Senate, if it happens), is to write and say, “Don’t blow it this time!” The money giveaway pipeline must be shut down.

Well said. There’s good reason as to why the GOP has earned the nickname, “Stupid Party.”

Christopher Hathaway
August 31, 2010

Kicking the Dems’ hindquarters in November will be like D-Day. The real fighting will only just have begun.

Jim the Puritan
August 31, 2010

I wouldn’t count my elephants until they’re hatched.

There’s still plenty of time for the GOP to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

Christopher Hathaway
September 1, 2010

I don’t count my elephants until they grow up and stampede over the donkeys and crush their heads.

I mean, what’s the point of having elephants if they don’t crush anything?

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