Posted by Christopher Johnson | Tuesday, August 31st, 2010 | Uncategorized | 11 Comments
Will November’s mid-term elections be a repeat of 1994 for the Democrats? Right now, a repeat of 1994 looks like the Democratic Party’s best-case scenario:
Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.
The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.
And that’s not all. The Republicans have a huge lead in another area.
Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be “very” enthusiastic about voting, and now hold — by one point — the largest such advantage of the year.
Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup’s likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP’s favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November.
Let’s see. A ten-point lead in the generic ballot, twice as large as it was in 1994 when the Republicans took control of both houses of the Congress. And a 25-point lead in likely voter enthusiasm. I may have to use some vacation time to live-blog that day.